Using Internet Trends to try to predict the HOTS player base

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=heroes%20of%20the%20storm

It’s just out of curiosity and fun, but I’d like to see if we can predict the estimated number of players still playing Storm Heroes based on online trends (take this with caution).

I use Google trends to compare research on the game and see how it has decreased in overtime.

Pay attention: Overtime percentages are measured at the highest peaks in history and how certain time periods relate to them in order to measure the level of interest in a topic (see link above to see what I mean) :

So, for the past five years, all over the world:

2019 : The average interest in Heroes was mainly on a scale of 2 according to Google trends.

2018 : The average percentage was 6-4.

2017 : From the post-storm peak of 2.0 (after the first months around July) until the end of the year, the number on the scale is between 9 and 7.

Difference between 2017. For Post HOTS 2.0 and 2018 there is about 33-42% less interest for overtime (of course for matches that lose the interest).

The difference between 2018 and 2019 is on average about 50-66% of the decrease in the share of overtime (export and development costs have been reduced this year).

Well, according to SuperData, the Heroes had 6.5 million players in 2018:

If there was a 50-66% decrease in 2018-2019 and we equate it to 6.5 million users (funny that we meet 6.5 again…), we get a range of 2.21-3.25 million as an active user base of if we decide in to define interest as a determining factor for the users reviewed.

Now let’s look at last year’s figures in a year-on-year comparison: https://twitchtracker.com/games/32959 (click on the monthly comparison).

The average audience is 7000 (2018) views per day, about 71% less than last year. Keep in mind that the figures for 2018 for sponsored sports and sponsored topstreamers will increase and are likely to be quite questionable.

They don’t have full transparency about the number of players we had before. However, I think we can assume that about 50-66% of the players have probably lost their active interest in the base area. In my opinion, there are still 2 to 3 million potential players coming back, and if that’s true, that’s a good sign for this game.

– Thanks for reading

(Note that I may have made a numerical error or something may have exploded, so excuse me in advance.

Note 2 : The numbers of the first links change slightly when they are opened with a mobile phone or desktop computer, but the general trend probably remains the same).

2020 will satisfy both classic and modern players. To get on the list, the game must be confirmed for 2020, or there must be a good reason to expect it this year. Therefore, upcoming matches with a simple announcement and no recognizable release date will not be taken into account.

By 2020, there will be tons of them… in the world of video games. Here are the fifteen races we expect for the first half of 2020.